Historically, market trends could take decades to resurface following the realization that they were driven by excessive risk taking, but the world now behaves like a podcast set to 3x speed. Retail activity hasn’t quite returned to where it was in 2021 prior to the collapse in 2022, suggesting there may be some room left to run here.
The curve above is rising fast, but we think it could be underestimating the true impact artificial intelligence (AI) is having on productivity. As a reminder, the current AI models are absolutely the worst they will ever be…and they are very good.
Managing expectations In recent months, we have talked about the implications of highly uncertain trade policy more than we’d like. The graph above illustrates the
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