March 2025
While we’re sure everyone is sick of talking about tariffs, the magnitude of the event compels us to include this chart. Tariffs have been nowhere near the current levels since war times, and the sheer scope of the economic impact, assuming they stay in place for a reasonable period of time, will have generational impacts.
February 2025
Trending The long-term trend of more and more assets flooding into passive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) from active mutual funds continues to kick off 2025. This structural shift in markets falls into the category of things that can generally be ignored as they develop, but at some point, a tipping point is triggered and the world […]
January 2025
Source Charts can be adjusted to fulfill any narrative, so we are always cognizant of the level of inference we take from any one visualization. That said, with a changing of the guard in the White House leading to policies that are almost certain to be inflationary, we are keeping a very close eye on […]
December 2024
Holiday Cheer 2024 has proven to be a year that gave investors reason to celebrate. There remains a certain sense of unease with overall valuations, no doubt a common Insights topic in the year to come, but there is little to complain about as we bring 2024 to a close. More importantly, we hope this […]
November 2024
A GAME OF NUMBERS Source: YCharts.com. © 2024 YCharts, Inc. All rights reserved We are sure you have heard enough about the U.S. election at this point, so we will spare you any further opinions and/or red shaded maps. Instead, some interesting data on house prices around the world which shows the impact demographics can […]
October 2024
Starting Point Source: @Marlin_Capital We have previously discussed the sea change in markets, with rates now declining across most developed markets. This particular topic is, in our opinion, the most important thing for investors to focus on at the moment. Given the highest starting valuations in modern history, the potential downside risk is material should […]
September 2024
Demographics = Destiny There is much discussion of the slowdown in China, with many pointing at the overinvestment in the housing market, debt, and a variety of other well documented issues. All economies are multi-faceted, so at the risk of oversimplification, we would highlight population growth as the overarching long-term issue. When your population is […]
August 2024
The volatility of the past few weeks marks the return of bad news actually being treated as such by the markets. For a long time, any indication economic malaise was viewed positively as it increased the odds of near-term rate cuts.
July 2024
See article number two for a deep dive here. The theme of the big getting bigger absolutely dominates the market at the moment. Historically, these types of trends have ended very poorly indeed. That said, while earnings may not be keeping pace with valuations (i.e. the stocks certainly look pricey), today’s tech giants are certainly growing faster than almost anyone imagined companies of that scale ever could.
June 2024
The Goldman Sachs IPO Issuance Barometer represents a gauge for market participants to monitor if the macro environment is conducive to new IPOs.